Debate Data

There was a lot of talk before the debate began last night that the impetus was on John Kerry to give a strong showing in order to stay in this presidential race. I think he did just that. Various "quickie" polls have showed Kerry as the winner by a slight majority.

"The CBS survey of 200 "fence sitters" showed 44 percent said Kerry won, 26 percent said Bush won and 30 percent said it was a tie. The ABC numbers were similar in that 45 percent gave the edge to Kerry while 36 chose Bush and 17 percent said it was a tie." -- source http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,134165,00.html)

Why do others feel Kerry "won" the debate?

Content - A draw. President Bush and Senator Kerry both stayed away from sepcifics and relied on generalizations and simplifications. The few details of both of their arguments were a mix of fact and fiction. Kerry used the Democratic favorite, that only the rich got a tax cut. We know this is false. (See for yourself Note that I linked to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. For partisan info, try The Cato Institute or Factcheck.org). Bush said that 75% of Al-Qaeda leadershp has been destroyed. This is an example of over-simplification. It would be both hard to know this, and naive to think that there are no new leaders filling the void.

Style - Kerry. I am not one to be swayed or impressed by images or perceptions, as best as I am able to be objective. One must concede the point however, that Kerry's confidence and determination were striking. The President was put on the defensive. I for one have never subscribed to the belief that President Bush is "dumb" simply because he speaks slowly, makes faces, or any of the other reasons non-thinking people cite. His actions speak far louder than his words. However, Kerry saying that Osama attacked the US, not Saddam (and therefore we should not be in Iraq) was a setup. What possible response could the President have? The only thing he could have said was what he did say: "I know Osama bin Laden attacked us. I know that."

Attitude - Bush. So typically Kerry - wagging the finger, disrespecting the President...the disdain was overwhelming. Even better was Bush's attitude: I'm the boss, I'm the leader, you wouldn't know. The combination of Kerry coming across as arrogant, and Bush coming across as experienced was definitely positive for Bush.

Overall, this debate doesn't hurt Bush, but it does help Kerry slightly. Expect the polls to even up a bit over the next week or so, as people react to hearing Kerry for the first time. Bush will surge again before the next debate.

Bryan Taylor